−0.8%
YoY wash volume growth · Jan–Jun 2026
0%4%
Q2 2026 Industry Insights
The Quarterly State of the Carwash Industry.
National wash-count benchmarks from 75% of U.S. tunnel wash sites. Plus this quarter’s spotlight: the millions of member recharges that reveal where membership revenue silently leaks, and how much of it is recoverable.
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Regional YoY Performance
Jan–Jun 2026 compared to Jan–Jun 2025. Benchmark your sites against regional trends.
DataNCS Wash IntelRubicon Analytics
Total market
Every reporting wash site, including newly opened locations. Shows how the industry’s overall volume is growing.
Same-siteOnly sites with 12+ months of history, so new builds don’t inflate the number. Shows organic growth at established locations. The closest read on how an existing wash should expect to perform.
Pro tipThis view counts every reporting wash, including brand-new ones that opened this year. The number can rise because new washes were built, not necessarily because drivers are washing more often.
+1.8%
YoY wash volume growth · Jan–Jun 2026
0%4%
+1.6%
YoY wash volume growth · Jan–Jun 2026
0%4%
InsightTotal-market volume stayed positive through June, with East (+1.8%) and West (+1.6%) outpacing a slight Central dip (−0.8%).
Same-site volume, month by month
National YoY % change at established sites (12+ months of data). The closest read on how incumbents are weathering new market entrants.
State Performance
Trailing-twelve-month YoY wash volume change by state, through June 2026.
DataNCS Wash IntelRubicon Analytics
Total market
Every reporting wash site, including newly opened locations. Shows how each state’s overall volume is growing.
Same-siteOnly sites with 12+ months of history, so new builds don’t inflate the number. Shows organic growth at established locations. The closest read on how an existing wash should expect to perform.
Total market: 36 of 51 states above prior year
Pro tip
−16%+16%
Wash-count benchmarks: NCS Wash Intel & Rubicon Analytics, TTM through June 2026, sites with 12+ months of data for same-site views.
The Members Who Didn’t Choose to Leave.
Why we focused on payment health this quarter
Some member cancellations were never a choice: a recharge payment quietly failed and the member churned without ever knowing. The good news, most of these payment failures are preventable or recoverable through a variety of tactics. Drawing on millions of membership recharges across the AMP portfolio, here’s where the money actually leaks, and how it can be clawed back.
How payment failure and recovery works
Prevent failures
Up-to-date card credentials and smart acceptance logic prevent approximately 1 out of 3 potential payment failures
Payment fails
Ultimately, about 1 out of 11 initial recharge payments fail and move into recovery
Retries
Roughly half of failed payments are recovered through a payment retry schedule
Dunning
Automated payment recovery. The member is nudged by email and text to update their payment method, recovering about 1 of 5 failed payments
Win-back
If nothing works, the member is invited to reactivate later
Why payments fail, and which recover
Most payment failures are due to insufficient funds, but they recover at the highest rate
Share of failures% that recover
Insufficient funds
62%
71%
Generic decline
16%
44%
Card can’t support
10%
42%
Invalid account
7%
38%
Expired / wrong number
5%
40%
InsightSmart retry programs can recover many insufficient-funds declines. They retry payments on an optimized schedule to improve success rates. Other declines, such as expired cards or incorrect numbers, are better handled through prevention or dunning.
Card type is the strongest predictor of failure
Relative first-attempt failure rate and share of recharge volume by card type (credit = baseline)
Credit card
1×
44% of volume
Debit
3×
54% of volume
InsightDebit cards fail about 3× as often as credit cards on the first attempt, and prepaid cards fail far more still. But credit’s edge has a cost: its failures recover slightly less often, and it carries higher processing fees.
Aggressive promotions create a payment cliff
The first full-price charge after a promo fails about 55% more often.
The first $30 charge fails about 55% more often.
InsightSign-up promotions are a common way of attracting new members; while they drive higher sales, they can lead to higher churn — both voluntary and through failed payments. This is because the higher the recharge amount, the higher the chance of payment failure, all else equal.
Failed Payment Recovery Strategies
Failed payments can be recovered through multiple strategies. Email and text dunning alert the member that their payment failed and provide an easy process of updating their card. Retries re-attempt the charge on a schedule, typically over 14 days.
Most recovery happens in the first 7 days
Cumulative share of all recoveries by days since first failure (Day 14 = 100%)
Win-Back: The Boomerang Effect
When retries and dunning fail and a member cancels, the story isn’t over. Members lost to a failed payment come back at nearly twice the rate of members who chose to leave, most within the first few weeks.
Failed-payment cancels come back more often, and fast
Relative return rate: members who start a new membership after canceling
Within 30 days
Failed payments
~2×
Voluntary cancels
baseline
Within 60 days
Failed payments
~1.8×
Voluntary cancels
baseline
Within 90 days
Failed payments
~1.7×
Voluntary cancels
baseline
Failed payments
Voluntary cancels
InsightMembers lost to a declined card didn’t mean to leave, and it shows: they return at nearly double the rate of voluntary cancels, with the largest opportunity for win-back in the first 30 days.
Win-back rate is highly dependent on cancelation reason
Relative return rate within 90 days, by cancelation reason
Failed payments
Highest
No car / car sold
High
Price / budget
High
Not using it enough
Moderate
Bad experience
Low
Went to competitor
Lowest
Failed payments
Voluntary cancels
InsightCircumstantial exits (a failed card, a sold car, a tight budget) return at the highest rates; deliberate exits (a competitor, a bad experience) rarely do. Differentiating your win-back strategy by cancelation reason can ensure the right message is received at the right time.
How Much of My Revenue Is at Risk?
Enter your numbers to estimate the monthly revenue at risk from failed payments, and how much could be recovered.
Revenue impact calculator
Slide to your numbers to see monthly revenue at risk and what mitigation can recover
2,000
30010,000
$30
$15$60
~9.0%
5%15%
Estimated revenue at risk per month from failed payments
$5,400
+$3,780 / mo
potentially recoverable with comprehensive involuntary churn mitigation (assumes ~70%+ reduction)
Apply savings
Ready to claw it back? Comprehensive involuntary churn mitigation is built into AMP.
Contact AMP to get started →Illustrative only. At-risk revenue = active plans × average plan price × failure rate. Comprehensive mitigation (preventing false declines, smart retries, email and text dunning, and win-back) is assumed to recover ~70% or more. Recoverable amounts reflect the first month only — recovered memberships keep recharging, so much of that value carries into future months as retained revenue. Actual results vary by card mix, demographics, plan structure and pricing, and other factors.
How Operators Can Act on This
The numbers above only matter if they change what happens at the wash. Four moves, in priority order.
Activate failure prevention with your processor.Network tokens, automatic card account updates, and real-time acceptance optimization stop as many false declines as possible before they ever reach recovery.
Turn on recovery.Email and text dunning plus an optimized retry schedule catch the failures that slip through, including the expired and replaced cards retries alone can’t fix.
Capture verified contact info at signup.A confirmed email and phone number are what let dunning reach the member. A missing phone number is one of the top reasons outreach gets skipped today.
Target win-backs by cancellation reason.Failed-payment and other circumstantial exits return at the highest rates. Reach them first, and where a full membership won’t land, a retail wash loyalty program can.
Ready to Turn Data Into Profit?
Everything in this report came out of AMP’s platform: 1,000+ active locations, 10M+ washes a year. Operators use the same engine to grow memberships, coach teams, and win back lost members. Get a walkthrough of your own numbers from the team behind this report.
+30%
more unlimited memberships. Sold at kiosk, in app, lane-side
4×
sales gap between top and bottom attendants. Coach with facts
+125%
more reactivations with automatic win-back campaigns
New · AMP MCP
Ask this data your own questions.
Every number in this report lives in AMP’s data platform. AMP MCP securely connects that data to AI tools like Claude — so you can ask “which locations underperformed last week?” and get answers grounded in your own washes.
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+30% memberships and +125% reactivations are operator-reported results (ampmemberships.com) · 4× attendant gap from AMP’s Q1 2026 Industry Insights · results vary by site.